New York Primary Preview

Tonight, voters in New York, South Carolina, Maryland, and Utah head to the polls to nominate their candidates for the 2026 election. Most national attention is focused on New York City, where a wave of Mamdani-backed progressives are seeking to displace more establishment Democrats. That focus is warranted, however, other states have consequential primaries too.

New York’s contests are the most interesting, so let’s get right to them.

New York

7th District

Located in Northern Brooklyn and Southern Queens, NY-7 is home to retiring long-time progressive incumbent Nydia Velázquez, who has held the seat since 1993. Velázquez is backing Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, a candidate in a similar mold. Reynoso has earned support from a mix of moderate and progressive Democrats, including Attorney General Letitia James, Queens Borough President Donovan Richards, and NYC Public Advocate Jumaane Williams.

His main opponent is State Assembly Member Claire Valdez, a Democratic Socialist backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Senator Bernie Sanders, and Justice Democrats. While Reynoso and Valdez aren’t dramatically different on policy, Valdez takes a harder line on Palestine, climate, and regulation.

Prediction markets and polls give Valdez a narrow edge heading into Election Day — and I agree. She has a couple of structural advantages other progressive challengers lack. NY-7 has an unusually young electorate: at the close of early voting, the median voter age was just 39. Mayor Mamdani also carried this district with 67% of the vote, his strongest showing in any New York City congressional district.

My prediction: Valdez wins by roughly 5%.

10th District

Next door to NY-7, the equally progressive NY-10 spans Southern Manhattan and Eastern Brooklyn. Incumbent Dan Goldman, a more establishment Democrat, is being challenged by former NYC Comptroller and mayoral candidate Brad Lander. The district backed Harris by 61% in 2024 and Mamdani by 25% in 2025 — making Goldman’s positioning a persistent liability.

Goldman has made several unforced errors. He declined to back Mamdani despite his district’s overwhelming support for the mayor, and he has continued accepting AIPAC money in a district where that’s politically toxic. Lander is running to Goldman’s left on Israel and other issues.

This one isn’t going to be close. Lander will roll up massive margins in Park Slope, SoHo, and Cobble Hill. The more interesting question is whether he wins by more than 25% — the margin by which Ken Paxton won his primary a month ago.

My prediction: Lander wins in a landslide.

12th District

Moving up Manhattan, NY-12 covers the Upper East and West Sides, ending around Central Park. Long-time incumbent Jerry Nadler is retiring, opening what many expected to be a competitive primary.

Unlike the rest of New York City’s contests, NY-12 doesn’t have a strong progressive-vs.-moderate dynamic. The district backed Governor Cuomo in 2025, which limits Mamdani’s influence here.

This is essentially a two-horse race between State Assembly Members Micah Lasher and Alex Bores. Lasher is a traditional Democrat in Nadler’s mold. Bores has made AI regulation a centerpiece of his campaign — drawing heavy spending both for and against him from tech companies. He’s an interesting test case for whether AI policy is breaking through as a real voter concern among Democrats. (Full disclosure: I’m working with Nic Zateslo, a candidate in Florida running on similar themes.)

Markets and I both see Lasher as a slight favorite.

My prediction: Lasher wins by under 5%.

13th District

Northern Manhattan is home to the most compelling primary of the night. Long-time incumbent Adriano Espaillat faces a challenge from the left by organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier.

The district is heavily Black and Hispanic, but a growing white, college-educated population in Harlem and Washington Heights has shifted it in a more progressive direction. Espaillat was heavily favored early on, but boosted by Mayor Mamdani, Chevalier surged and briefly took the lead. Espaillat has since steadied himself, largely due to the surfacing of old tweets in which Chevalier mocked Vice President Harris and expressed support for prison abolition.

Espaillat is a narrow favorite heading into Election Day, helped in part by a much older primary electorate — the average voter in NY-13 is 59, a significant structural advantage against a challenger running a youth-driven insurgent campaign.

My prediction: Espaillat holds on by under 3%.

17th District

The lone non-NYC primary worth watching is NY-17, currently held by Republican Mike Lawler. On the Democratic side, veteran Cait Conley is the strong frontrunner, though Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson still has a narrow path if things break her way.

My Prediction: Conley wins by 8%.

South Carolina, Maryland, and Utah

These states haven’t drawn as much national attention as New York, but they have consequential primaries of their own.

In South Carolina, Republicans will nominate their gubernatorial candidate, with Attorney General Alan Wilson the overwhelming favorite.

In Utah, Democrats will pick a candidate for the now-blue 1st Congressional District. Former Congressman Ben McAdams is heavily favored to reclaim the seat he lost six years ago.

Maryland has flown under the radar but deserves a closer look. In the congressional race to replace retiring Steny Hoyer, Delegate Adrian Boafo enters as the frontrunner, backed by Hoyer, Governor Wes Moore, and Senator Angela Alsobrooks. He faces challenges from Harry Dunn — the Capitol Police officer who defended the building on January 6th — and Rushern Baker, the former Prince George’s County Executive. Outside spending is boosting Boafo, though the race isn’t locked up.

Two Baltimore-area State Senate races are also worth watching as a barometer of Democratic voter mood. In District 41, indicted State Senator Dayla Attar is seeking re-election despite her legal troubles, facing a challenge from Delegate Malcolm Ruff. Ruff is likely to fall short, but the margin matters. In District 46, Senate President Bill Ferguson faces a challenge from newcomer Bobby Lapin, who entered the race after Ferguson declined to redraw the district lines to push out Republican Andy Harris. The Democratic establishment has rallied around Ferguson, and he’s expected to win — but a loss would be a major signal.

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The Bottom Line

Tonight’s results will offer a real read on the Democratic electorate in 2026. If moderates hold, the establishment still has a grip. If progressives have a strong night — and especially if Ferguson falls — it signals a deeper appetite for change that could reshape the party heading into November.